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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."